My Post-Retirement Gig – Heavy Machine Operator
Artificial Intelligence and technology are rapidly changing jobs and the future of work. The job environment that will exist when you reach financial independence or retire will be very different, perhaps to your advantage. This post is the latest in my series discussing the future of jobs and how AI will impact them.
In my last post about the future of jobs and artificial intelligence I discussed how the autonomous vehicle movement is more hype than reality. And by that I mean fully autonomous vehicles at level five which requires no human intervention. It may get here eventually, but eventually is still a long long way off.
As I was outlining my next post about robotic vehicles Bloomberg went ahead and scooped me. They published this great piece discussing the more practical and near-term ways that robotic vehicles will make headway in business and change jobs.
Industrial and construction vehicles are a massive provider of jobs. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics there were over 426,000 construction equipment operators in 2016. And that number doesn’t include farm vehicles and some other related categories.
As the Bloomberg article points out, because construction vehicles and equipment often operate off public roads and in controlled spaces, they’re “low-hanging fruit” for the robotic vehicle movement to make headway.
I’m purposely using the word “robotic” instead of “autonomous” because the distinction matters. The progression of the technology in this arena will not for the most part immediately jump to autonomy. Instead, the ability for a human to operate a vehicle remotely from a centralized control center will come first.
Remote Control On Steroids
The company highlighted in the article, Phantom Auto, is still in the early stages of what will very likely become an industry standard. Imagine being able to have your best crane operator immediately switch from a delicate urban job in Shanghai to a tricky high-wind win job in Nebraska?
If you’re skeptical, the truth is the technology is already being used. Check out this short video from a major construction crane company. I’m not quite sure why that guy is wearing what looks like a space suit, but hey it’s a safe job so he doesn’t need a helmet!
One heavy machine operator sitting in a comfortable, climate controlled operations center could easily jump from job to job at the click of a mouse. And many of the same cameras and sensors the autonomous car companies such as Waymo and Tesla are pouring money into will be used in the remote operations of these machines and vehicles.
From forklifts, to massive dump trucks at mining sites, to steam rollers and backhoes, the playing field is ripe and enormous. It’s every kids Tonka Toy dream come true.
And here’s the key and why this matters to the discussion of jobs and financial independence – people will still be needed! Like personal cars these machines won’t be fully automated anytime soon. These vehicles often avoid the risk of operating on public roads, but still work around people and are usually performing dangerous tasks. So the necessity of a real live human monitoring operations will still be paramount.
There are, however, vehicles that are experiencing full automation. Big-Agra and many not so big farms are now using GPS controlled tractors and farm equipment. They operate in a pre-programmed way using GPS for guidance, often with a human still in the cockpit.
Some of these tractors are fully autonomous and the trend will continue. But the technology will not translate to cars on public roads anywhere near as rapidly as the media hype will have you believe. After all, an autonomous tractor doesn’t have to worry about a kid jumping in front of it chasing a ball, or a cyclist crossing the street.
Changing Collars?
A huge bonus of a centralized control center for heavy equipment and construction vehicles is that of operator safety and working conditions. What are now considered pure blue collar jobs, complete with hard hats and the associate hazards will essentially become white collar jobs in the future.
The crane operator will be in khakis and a polo shirt (or a euro-styled space suit), coffee in hand, maybe with Pandora streaming in the background and a tiny basketball hoop on his cubicle wall. But take it from this white collar desk jockey who made a handsome career out of sitting at a desk pressing a button on a mouse – it’s not really healthy. It’s just that the hazards are less direct and apparent.
Our bodies evolved to move and be active, and more people sitting and clicking for a living has lots of minuses along with the pluses.
Another interesting nuance to these developments is that the skills required will change. Controlling and moving gears, levers, and clutches will transition from analog to digital interfaces. Astute video gamers could have a huge leg up in this future.
Gamers are a community that likely have the necessary motor skills to be successful in navigating sophisticated screen and device interfaces. Or as Bloomberg says “the operator of the future could be more gamer than teamster”.
Maybe that will justify those endless hours on Call of Duty.
Your Turn Readers – If you’re an avid gamer would you consider taking a job operating heavy machinery from a control center?
I used to play wayyyy too many video games. Sometimes I miss it, but I’m a convert to the therapeutic powers of the outdoors. If anything, I wish I had a robot to sit in my cubicle.
I did too but back in the Atari age. They’re too damn addictive
I remember when I was in surgery residency before I switched that laparoscopic surgery was like a video game (and I was pretty good at it because I did play a lot of games in my day).
We already have robotics in surgery (da Vinci) which allow a surgeon to operate while not even in the same room
Yes – I was going to mention da Vinci and advances in medical surgery but it’s a bit outta my league
Wow, I never thought that operating heavy equipment would one day be a remote job. I’d definitely take that over my remote IT job! Who wants to update spreadsheets when they can be bulldozing something!?
It is going to be unfortunate for the people who are manually operating these machines now though. I don’t think they’re going to want to be retrained on how to work a computer screen and sit in an office all day.
“Who wants to update spreadsheets when they can be bulldozing something!?”
Exactly!! And I think some won’t want to transition to an office but some will
here are a couple of observations from my brief periods as a blue collar operator. i felt better physically, as you mentioned, just by virtue of having to move around more. also, there was lots of semi-automation and a lot of it worked pretty well, but when something went wrong you really had to know how to act quickly to not compound the problem and cause a ton of extra physical work. it wasn’t a job for dummies to troubleshoot this stuff on the fly and we had to be in close proximity in this instance.
i’m more concerned about the winning stocks that will benefit from the automation revolution. synopsis (snps) could be one and it’s why i remain committed to NVDA. make enough money from holding some winners and you can mess around all day on a real hoop hung on your garage!
That’s why you run so darn fast, you don’t sit at work all day 🙂 And I’m sure you’ll find the winning stocks being that you’re the Oracle of Buffalo and all
I appreciate your perspective on these issues, and it provides me some comfort to think that maybe my personal future shock won’t be as bad as I sometimes think it will be. But I still think about how different life will be for my kids and future grand kids, due to the long-term consequences of automation. There may be an unbridgeable gap and continuing need for human operators – for now- but how long will that really last? Every time I have to do an image captcha, I think about how all the visitors to that site are (in some cases, unwittingly) teaching an automated system to know the difference between a mailbox and a street sign, and thereby contributing to accelerated automation. When that spacesuit crane operator operates that machine, I’d bet there’s a process in place (or there soon will be) for the software to learn from his hand muscle twitches, and it is making a map and study of the points on the screen on which his eyes are focused. It will eventually be able to use his performance to improve its own potential. I see human operators as teachers for the machines. Eventually the students won’t need the teachers – but that may be fifty or a hundred years from now rather than five.
I think it’s clear that this stuff is coming for sure but it’s never coming as fast as the media makes it seem. And other things we never thought of will come sooner, so there will be surprises.
Cool. It’ll be like what the drone operators are doing now. We don’t need as many pilots now.
I used to play a lot of video games too. The only problem is that it sucks up so much time.
They are a HUGE time suck for sure, that’s why I don’t play. Too addictive.
Hmmm. Construction is such a dangerous field still – I wonder if this would make it better or worse? (See: that awful deadly crane accident in Seattle just in this past month)
I think it would have to make it safer – fewer people on the site, and more precision. But it’ll still be a relatively dangerous field to work in.
One of the biggest autonomous equipment changes and has made the news a lot in Canada is mining dump trucks that haul loads from the pit back to the processing center in a determined path within a controlled zone. This will affect a great deal of jobs but as AI goes, it is a simple integration and execution.
https://business.financialpost.com/commodities/energy/suncor-phasing-in-150-autonomous-haul-trucks-job-cuts-expected-by-2019
Yes! I’ve seen them and should have included in the post! They’re like massive toys!
I was having a similar conversation with my siblings this past weekend about AI, machines learning and automation.
There will be tremendous disruption in all industries and the world as we know it. I think timing will accelerate exponentially once we go down this path.
But I think it will lead to a better standard of living all around and people will adapt to finding new ways to keep busy work wise (no different than we have throughout history such as through the industrial revolution).
I agree, the prognostications of massive job loss and dystopia to me are silly
I’m not a gamer, and I’d probably suck at operating heavy machinery. But it still is nice to hear that humans aren’t being phased out completely.
I’m in customer support where a bunch of our responses are automated, but it’d still be a while before a system could parse what the customer is asking and figure out which response to give. I think. And there’s the human touch when customers are particularly upset or otherwise need some soothing. So I think my job is safe for a while.
I work in construction management and have always longed to try being an operator. Maybe remotely will be for me one day.
It could well be. The future is coming fast!