Gig Or Job? The Future Of Gig Economy Jobs
NPR did an article recently about the gig economy that really got me thinking. Firstly, the article cited the research I posted about last year that claims to gig economy is actually getting smaller.
This is of course contrary to what most people think and to the general sentiment one would get from the media, but they have numbers to back it up. It wouldn’t be the first time that perception is very different from reality.
The article also highlighted a gig economy evangelist name Arun Sundararajan who thinks the data that show the gig economy is shrinking are wrong. But one thing they all agree on is that most people doing gig economy work are either rideshare drivers (Uber, Lyft) or Airbnb hosts.
Housing and transportation are two of the three big expenses, so it shouldn’t come as a shock that folks are using their expensive houses and cars to make money and ease the hit those items have already put on their net worth.
But here’s the thing, ride sharing and Airbnb hosting are not “jobs”. They’re gigs.
This article from The New York Times, details a long time Uber driver and laments that he does it full time and only makes around $40,000 a year. I found the comments even more enlightening – lots of folks saying that Uber is exploiting its drivers and not paying them a “living wage”.
But driving for Uber isn’t meant to be a full-time job. I do understand that in the past Uber may have released some not-so-thought-out advertising to the contrary of that. And that was stupid on their part.
Uber is selling convenience, plain and simple. And they’re doing it in two principal ways. They’re selling convenience to the person who needs a ride since Ubers are now everywhere and they’re (theoretically at least) cheaper than traditional taxi cabs.
And Uber is selling convenience to the drivers in a big way by allowing them to make money whenever they want. A real taxi driver usually has a real job, with scheduled shifts, and must work them. He or she has mandatory hours, may or may not have any say over those hours, and cannot just pick someone up on their way to the grocery store if they so desire to make an extra buck.
Non-Monetary Benefits
So when you drive for Uber or Lyft you’re trading in some of the hourly rate that a real cab driver would get for the extra benefit of autonomy, flexibility, and convenience. Of course you’re also using your own car, so there’s that. But you have to make those calculations to see if it’s worth your time, like in any other paid endeavor.
It’s rigid hours and the taxi company’s car versus flexible hours (or none) and your own car. You can’t have them both.
And let’s face it, isn’t this trade-off the same for most gig economy jobs?
We’ve all seen the spam emails and ads – Want to make money from home? Just be a proofreader! Yay! Until you find out that after a few months you may have made $600, but your hourly rate was less than minimum wage.
However, you did the work sitting on your couch in your Spiderman underwear for crying out loud! And you only took a project when you were in the mood. Isn’t that worth something? You can’t do those things in a real job that pays a “living wage”.
The Market Has Spoken
Whether blogging, freelance writing, graphic design, or ride-share driving, the common thing you hear about most gig economy jobs is that it’s really tough to make a living out of them. This is because the market is having it’s say. If something is super accessible, flexible, and doesn’t necessarily require a lot of education, then the market will of course put less of a value on it.
It’s also a design feature of gig economy jobs – you’re probably not supposed to do one of them full-time and claim it’s a full-time job. It’s certainly possible to achieve a solid full time income doing gig work like freelance writing, but it’s probably going to be hard.
The bottom line – driving a traditional cab isn’t hard to do and isn’t particularly high paying in most cases. But driving for Uber is even easier to do, so of course it pays less.
What If
The gig evangelist from the article envisions a future where gig work will become dominant and the old “company model” of work will lose out. At first I read this and chuckled. No way.
But then I thought about it…
What if financial independence and frugality go viral and tons of people start living on way less? What if we all spent less?
Could the reality of a gig-dominated economy come to fruition if the income potential from those “jobs” was actually enough to cover our expenses and lifestyles?
Then again, could the overspending of the majority be reduced without affecting what these gig jobs pay? If we all spend less we’d be taking fewer Ubers and booking fewer Airbnbs on the beach. If that happened would those gigs pay even less than they do now?
In the end I’m back to my original thought. No, I don’t believe gig jobs will take over the economy as the professor from the NPR article forecasts.
I believe in free markets, and the market will decide what these “jobs ” pay. If they don’t pay enough for the effort required to do them, people will stop doing them and they’ll go away. That’s how markets work.
New Development
In late April the Labor Department made the decision that gig-economy workers are contractors, not employees. They based it on these six principles:
- the degree to which employers have control over workers
- the permanency of the workers’ relationship with the employer
- the employer’s level of investment in workers’ equipment and facilities
- the level of skill required for the work
- the workers’ potential to earn profit,
- the integration of the workers’ services into the employer’s business.
To me the first two in that list are the big ones. Uber, Lyft, or AirBnB have very little control over you if you choose to use their platforms since you can just as easily stop using them. There’s no permanent relationship. I don’t even see them as being contractors in a traditional sense.
At my job we have tons of contractors and for most of them they’re tied to us and committed for a year or two at least depending on the contract. But the contracting company cannot just wake up one day and say “nah, we don’t want to do this anymore”. They’d be in breach of contract and would be sued.
Also #3 in that list is important to highlight. As far as I know, Uber and Lyft do not give their drivers any equipment or facilities (except maybe a sticker). If you’re a driver it’s your car and your phone that allow you to drive with them.
In the end, I love the gig economy, am participating in it, and can’t wait to see where it goes. I love the flexibility it gives me and I don’t mind making way less than a W2 salary to get that flexibility. It’s another one of the superpowers that financial independence provides – the ability to make way less doing something you enjoy.
Your turn AF readers – Do you think gig economy jobs will take over traditional jobs in the future? Have you ever done a gig-economy job and if so what did you do?
Great point Dave that the market indeed prices the level of pay based on difficulty level and/or convenience. Skill jobs that demand years of training demand higher pay otherwise people would not waste their time with the extra effort.
Agreed. I think the guy in the NYT article should just work for a traditional cab company, he’d probably make more. A friend of mine has a dad who is a cabbie full time and his dad makes in the 50’s. I suspect he wants the flexibility and options of Uber, but he has to realize that comes at a cost.
It depends on what is meant by gig economy. Uber and lift style, no way. Like you said pricing will adjust. But I do see the potential for a long term rise in freelance and a more transient workforce all together. That freelance is probably not blog or web related but more generally.
Great point! I agree the trend will keep moving toward self-employment, but I don’t think it will be the majority anytime in the near or mid-term future.
i could see a real appeal for early retiree types to make a few bucks to keep their portfolio withdrawals to a minimum by taking on a few gig type jobs. i don’t know if the very elderly ought to be driving 8 hours a day but someone in their 50’s or 60’s might just accept a few rides for some extras in life or just for some social interaction during the day with the bonus of a few bucks. it’s not something i think i would like because i really don’t care much for driving but, hell, you never say never.
I agree, gig stuff is ideal for older folk. Also agree driving sucks and I would never want to be an Uber driver in a million years. You’d have to pay me a shit-ton to do that, esp here in the DC region with the worst traffic in the USA. Maybe out in the rural Rocky Mountains, I’d consider it if the drive was always jaw-dropping 🙂
You sure put a lot in here to think about. I do think you’re right about the flexibility being a key difference here – especially the ability to come and go as you please. The way this is even possible though is that this is serious piece work (like many construction workers actually do), but not tied to an overarching specific job.
I aim to make people think, and sometimes achieve! The flexibility of gig-jobs to me is the best selling point. For me, I make a graphic design whenever I please (which is often cuz it’s fun). But I can stop whenever and the money keeps coming in. It’s 100% on my time, and that’s worth a lot.
The gig economy is the perfect fit for the FIRE movement. Once you’re FI (or close), you can work just enough to help pay the bills. It’s a great way to go.
Unfortunately, these unskilled gigs probably will never pay enough to support a family. If anyone can do it, you won’t get pay much. Freelancing in a specialized field probably would work better.
You’re a perfect example Joe, you’re killing it with your blog! Of course blogging is a gig that demands skill, and you have it in spades.
I would like to do these types of jobs when I have enough to not work. I think it’s in MY future, but it’s hard for me to think that it will dominate. Here is my reason, institutional knowledge. We can’t build the Saturn 5 rocket again not because we don’t have the plans. We don’t have the skilled trades people who knew the welding tricks and the like to make it work. This is not an outsourcing complaint, it’s just that we do things differently today, and we literally don’t build things like we did in the 60s. So those skills and knowledge are lost. The same would be true in a primary gig economy where it would be very expensive to have new people constantly trying to re figure out what other skilled people had done.
For lower skilled jobs perhaps it could be true, but I do not think it will be for welders, teachers, and the lime which I think includes most jobs.
Great points about institutional knowledge! You’re very correct we barely build much anymore in the US. Although I think like other things it will start to swing the other way. Something tells me…
I think 3D printing will help make that happen.
The gig economy is an interesting one, and I do see shifts in its direction within some fields. Our system of higher education is essentially turning what were once tenured professorships into gigs by relying more and more on adjuncts as a way to reduce costs. (My guess is you know something about this transition. ;)) I don’t think it’s possible to have an entire college or university operate by staffing only adjuncts. For one, there’s no one to run the run the various departments. Two, most adjuncts will eventually tire of too much work for too little pay and no benefits. Three, the quality and reputation of the professors and their respective departments attracts and keeps students.I’m curious to see how this situation plays out over time. With fewer and fewer tenured professorships available, will more people choose to not earn PhDs or earn PhDs with the intention of avoiding a career in academia?
I also see media moving more into the gig economy, especially after hearing on a podcast last night that computers write content now instead of people.
Anyway, babysitting gigs set me on my journey to FI decades ago! The gig economy will always exist, and the younger generations seem to accept this reality without question, so I absolutely believe it will grow. To what extent, I don’t know. But it will grow. It’ll be interesting to see how it affects health care and insurance, since insurance is generally tied to one’s job (which I think is wrong anyway).
Ha, I do know all too well about the adjunct faculty transition. And I don’t blame my former employer. If anything I think they were kind of wasteful in not doing it earlier. Asking the grad students to teach for free is the cheapest solution 🙂
I do think things like PhDs will become less important over time as education becomes more open on the internet and learning becomes easier. We’re seeing the beginning of the crumbling of the old college model and the start of something new.
And babysitting is surely a great gig if you love kids. People will always be having more, so the work won’t dry up anytime soon!
While I’d love for the gig-economy to grow, I just don’t thing it’s going to become terribly large. For one, traditional jobs pay more. If you’re trying to make a living by working a job, a traditional job is the way to go. Gig workers only try to work a gig full-time when they have no other full-time job prospects. They’re doing what they can to earn some money, but they know full-time work is better. In a way, they’re kinda desperate workers without other options.
Gig jobs ]keep the worker occupied, but most skilled workers obviously choose a traditional employer first, despite the benefits of gig flexibility. Having real benefits is a big deal.
Full-time jobs also have steady pay — something a gig can’t provide. For example, trying to pay a mortgage from a gig-job would be really hard. Income tends to fluctuate up and down all the time and lack the stability most mortgaged workers need.
If you lay all those cards on the table, it seems clear to me the gig economy can only grow so far. Workers are simply going to choose the better job.
To me gig jobs will always be the minority as long as companies dominate the capitalist system. A famous VC guy named Naval thinks we’ll slowly move toward everyone being their own brand or company and gig work will dominate, but I’m in your camp, I’m pretty skeptical of that prognosis
I think it is a great transition for people retiring early but a lousy lifetime career. I make pretty good money in retirement and only work about a day a week because I don’t need an income. But if this was earlier in my career then I could not have made what my salary jobs paid me. I’d have had to spend too much unpaid time seeking out new clients and doing the back office stuff. I never had to do that when I had a 9 to 5, I had departments of people that took care of everything that wasn’t in my job description. As a side gig guy now there is nobody to handle all that background stuff, if the laser printer goes down I have to fix it, same way with my computer and software accounts. I’d bet I’d be lucky to be able to bill 20 hours out of a 40 hour week. Working the limited amount I do now, that’s not a problem, I kind of enjoy the DIY aspects but if I was really trying to earn a living it would be crazy inefficient.
Yes I agree. some think gigs will start paying more and the future will go that way. I’m not so sure. The autonomy is attractive though, but even autonomy within a 60+ workweek is still a bitch.
I don’t make much off my “gig” work but as you said, I control all aspects of it. Where I do the work, what work I do, when I do it and heck if I do it dressed or do it sitting on the couch in boardshorts. The key is shaping the lifestyle around it and managing the life you want to see.
Working in boardshorts has it’s benefits 🙂