How The Coronavirus Might Change Food
For introverts like me, “social distancing” isn’t something I have to be convinced to do. It’s built into my life a little more than it is for a social butterfly or an extrovert.
So I’ve been watching with curious fascination the reactions of many who seem to feel the world is going to end if they have to socially distance themselves due to the coronavirus threat, even for a short period of time.
And what seems to be disturbing people a lot is that they can’t go out to eat. To me, there could be a big silver lining in this crisis. It might just lead to people changing their habits of eating out too much, which is destructive to both their money and their health.
The Last Can Of Who-Hash
We’ve all seen the images of barren grocery store shelves and folks trucking enough toilet paper home to wipe the collective asses of the Chinese army three times over. People are scared, and if they’re going to be stuck at home for a while they want to make sure they have enough food. I understand that, and it makes sense.
But here’s the reality – Americans spend far more eating out than ever before. According to the National Restaurant Association, in 1955 only 25 cents of every $1 spent on food went to restaurants. By 2019, it was more than half, at 51 cents.
Those numbers agree with the Department of Agriculture numbers, which Bloomberg put into this nice chart.
As you can see total spending on food as a percentage of disposable income has gone down significantly from the 1930’s. But as that spending declined spending on eating out has increased.
We all know that eating out is far more expensive than cooking at home, so we could drive down the total costs of food as a percentage of income that much more if we didn’t eat out as much.
Or as Bloomberg puts it in this article:
Restaurants have actually been taking a growing share of our paychecks over time, and thanks to them the overall food share (as percentage of income) has barely budged over the past decade.
The article explains that jobs in the restaurant sector in America have been exploding. Why?
Because you, dear American, are going out to eat way way too much.
Who’s Guilty?
Pitting generations against each other is always fun and usually spawns great internet memes, so let’s take a look at how this breaks down by generation. Business Insider did some nice charts on this based on Bureau of Labor Statistics data from 2017.
It appears my generation, the “angsty x’ers”, is really screwing the pooch here. But hey those grub-hub-luvin Millennials aren’t too far behind. We Gen X’ers however have higher incomes than they do, so let’s break it down by share of total spending.
Ok Boomer, you’re kicking everyone’s ass here, even the Silent Generation folks who are older than you. But overall we’re all guilty of eating out more than we should, and the trend keeps increasing.
From 2003 – 2016 the total amount of money spent on food “away from home” (vs. at home) rose 94%.
It’s Killing You
This article from Toast says “With more people choosing to eat out than cook at home, the restaurant industry is thriving.”
And along with that, so is the obesity epidemic. As obesity continues to rise, so does the epidemic of mostly preventable chronic disease which now accounts for about 75% of healthcare costs in America.
There’s no argument that eating out is less healthy. As this WebMD article says:
On any given day, nearly one-third of American adults eat at a full-service restaurant, and nearly half at a fast-food restaurant. The nutritional quality of most of these meals is poor and almost none are ideal, and this is true for both quick-serve and full-service restaurants.
Sure, it’s just as easy to buy toxic junk (← affiliate link, don’t let me make money off your horrible food choices) at the grocery store and make horribly unhealthy food at home. But when forced to cook with actual ingredients, recipes made at home are going to tend to be healthier than eating out.
Worst of all, the “nearly half” of adults who eat fast food on a given day are really slowly killing themselves. Fast food has always been the bottom of the barrel health-wise, and it’s gotten worse over time.
A Whopper from Burger King has 12 grams of sugar – a hamburger shouldn’t have sugar for crying out loud!! Wake up people and stop putting this poison in your body!
It’s Costing You
The biggest three expenses in the lives of most are housing, transportation, and food, in that order. We in the financial independence space call these the “big three”. If you want to reduce your cost of living expenses as much as possible to get to financial independence, targeting the big three will get you the most bang for your buck.
I’ve posted about housing, and transportation costs, mainly cars. But reducing the cost of food is still a key factor in the path to financial independence.
So that begs the question, will the “social distancing” from fear of the coronavirus change the habits of Americans and possibly reverse the trend of going to restaurants more often than cooking at home?
Many will be avoiding restaurants all together in the near term, and the more germ-phobic might keep that behavior for quite a while. I mean, who knows if the cook sneezed on your tacos. Do you want to take that risk?
Back To Reality
When people today say they can’t afford a middle class lifestyle, they’re often moving the bar very very far from what middle class means. Houses went from 1200 sq. feet to 2700, and eating out – which used to be a rare treat only 40 or 50 years ago – now is expected almost every day.
As people stay home to avoid the virus, I hold hope they might come to realize that middle class means eating most of your meals at home and bringing your lunch to work.
The horror.
Not only is it a far more affordable way to eat, it’s healthier too. Getting to financial independence faster and with a smaller waistline sounds like a pretty good outcome to me.
I did it, and I can assure you the grass is green over here. Come join me, but keep at a safe distance please.
Your turn – With many people staying at home and self-distancing to prevent the spread of coronavirus, do you think it will change any habits in the long term regarding food and cooking at home? Will it change yours?
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“…enough toilet paper home to wipe the collective asses of the Chinese army three times over.” Can I see the math on that, please? And, did you really say OK Boomer in a post!? Gees, the world really is going to crap.
Great post, actually. I had a similar, though broader, thought about the whole C’virus thing. As terrible as it is for the folks/families who catch the virus, and those who my lose their job/income, the lessons of frugality from a few weeks of “social distancing” may be lessons which benefit people over the longer term. Fascinating to watch…from home.
The math on the Chinese Army could be a tad off but it’s close. And yes I “ok boomer’ed” Is it already not hip? I’m always behind on things…
As always, you nailed it. Even though Fritz @theretirementmanifesto questions the math, I loved the Chinese army comment. And I swear, you come up with more stats than any data geek I’ve every know. And maybe as a Boomer I’m not with it. But what the heck is Toast??
Anyway, great perspective on eating out. I’m guessing we have more restaurants in the DMV per capital than any other area in the country. I’m sure you have stats on that somewhere.
Maybe this will change behavior and people will start eating at home more. My concern is that, like other crises, the change will be short lived. After about 6 months, we will be right back to our old habits. That’s the cynic in me. The optimist says that change will stick for more people than not.
Keep up the good work, my friend.
We do have a butt-load of restaurants. At one point I think downtown Bethesda had the most # of restaurants in a square mile radius than anywhere int he country. And I fear you’re correct, people will likely go back to old habits. Fast food is engineered to be addictive and damn if they aren’t addicted. As someone who used to eat it a long time ago when I weighed 70 pounds more, I can commiserate.
i honestly can’t believe how much people eat out. i have acquaintances who “dine” 4-5 times a week even though they are skilled cooks. oh, and don’t forget about the cost of a “craft cocktail.” i would be more than happy to show the world how to fix a healthy and nutritious bean muffurito. then we’ll all live forever.
If we could just get everyone on the muffurito diet, we’d all have fair skin and become snarky as hell 🙂
As for the “craft cocktails”, yeah…. in some places in D.C. they’re $22-$25 each. And those places are always packed. Yet those folks complain about not having money leftover before the next paycheck comes.
I’ve been thinking about how our spending is going to tank. We probably go out to eat two times a week.
That being said unless the Coronavirus continues to be a threat I see us reimplementing the eating out part after this is over. My parents nearly ever went out, true. But I enjoy doing so occasionally for meals I otherwise can’t or won’t make at home. I’d change that if I lost my job or some other financial stress occurred.
Wow twice a week would be a lot to me, buy hey personal finance is personal 🙂 My bikes and climbing gear aren’t cheap and seem excessive to others but that’s my thing. We gotta have our things 🙂
A very timely and insightful post Dave!
My suspicion is we will see longer-term changes in people’s behavior, if for no other reason that they can’t afford to eat out. By the time the virus passes, lots of restaurants will be closed. Even worse, lots of folks will be so deep in debt that even basic groceries will strain their household budgets.
The silver lining, as you point out, will be more healthy home cooking. Maybe we should start writing cooking blogs. Check out Freddy’s good eats for cheap! Those muffuritos look most interesting.
I hope you’re right about long-term changes, I like your optimism. I think Freddy needs a mufferito truck. He could go on tour!
Damn, I’m lucky that I am not a typical GenXer but rather that outdoorsy solo introvert type. That being said I’m lucky the graph doesn’t show my coffee habit, you can’t tear that sweet nectar away from me dammit! Also, how else am I supposed to get motivated for those long bike rides without a mid point destination 🙂
Another killer personal finance based stats post man
Us outdoorsy solo introverts should form a union or something. And same here with coffee, although I’m trying to reduce a little lately. But man, when I open a new bag, the smell just makes me so happy. I’m an addict.
Dave,
Another thought provoking post. I remember an article similar to this during the Great Recession hypothesizing if habits such as more home cooking will stick even post recovery. However, I think the spending trended even higher for food away from home post recovery. Habits are hard to break, aren’t they? As for me, world travels may be on hold. But, you can bet I will be the first to capitalize on travel deals once we are on a mend. 🙂
Habits are indeed hard to break, mostly the bad ones. Good luck with navigating your travel, I think most folks are in wait-n-see mode and that’s probably the best thing to do for now.
Great article Dave. I sure hope people will enjoy eating in more. As someone who spent less than $100 eating out last year, I was actually shocked to see that 1/3 of people eat out each day. Jaysus! I love cooking and experimenting and have become quite the chef over time. Hopefully other will too as a result of not blowing coin and eating out all the time.
That said, I wasn’t imbued with hope checking out what people were buying up/hoarding when I went to the market yesterday. Moose Tracks ice cream and beer for F sakes. Wait, that was me actually…
Wow, less than $100 is amazing! I rarely go out but I spent way more than that.
A Moose Tracks ‘n beer party sounds like fun. Not healthy fun, but fun 🙂
I’m thinking we’ll revert as a society. It’s a shame because once you can cook at home, most restaurant meals become not tasty.
As far as moving the middle class bar; isn’t it typically that whatever society is doing now dictates the norms? I’m not saying that’s a good thing at all. I mean, those of us who are at least somewhat frugal will go through the thought process of “kind from the 1500s compared to my life today” types of thought exercises.
I suppose that’s fine. If others want to blow money to keep stocks going up, I guess I’ll take it. Kind of weird to think about.
Your point is a good one, what Middle Class is has inflated a ton over time. Sure some of that is natural as we’re a wealthier society in general, but much of it is ridiculous and just spawns more “i wants”.
And I’ve often thought of that too – that the wasteful spending of others fuels lots of my investments. Oh well, I don’t feel bad about it. I feel like I’m winning due to being wise.
This article is so true. In NL I used to eat so much more at home, because the difference between home cooked and a restaurant was huge. In PL however prices are about the same and you typically eat the main meal at noon, which means a lot of food from restaurants/cantines.
Lately I started to cook again, way more healthy!
Thanks for sharing this post, I enjoyed reading it 🙂
Thank you for the great comment!
I don’t think people will change once things go back to normal. It’s fun and easy to eat out. It’s good for the economy too.
A better solution is to have more affordable healthy restaurants. Fast food is so much easier, though.
Anyway, cooking at home is fun too. The problem is most people don’t have time. Work is taking over all our lives.
You are a master cook as you prominently show in your instagram feed. And work isn’t taking over your life, or mine, we nixed that 🙂
If there is a longer-lasting change in spending habits, I bet it’s transferring some of the funds spent on eating out to ordering meal kits. According to the applicable graph above, that’s a little better for a budget but only by a degree. I don’t see a mass adoption of cooking, as the alternatives are too convenient and too pleasurable for lots of people. And as long as delivery remains an option, people will likely rely on ordering in in place of going to a restaurant.
As someone who used to eat out quite a bit for pleasure and social interaction, I can say that it took me a long while to be in the habit of foregoing meals not prepared by me. I suspect that the process of denying oneself pleasure or convenience like that is not where a lot of people want to voluntarily put their energies.
Denying oneself pleasure is something that most folks are just not good at. Pleasure is good, I like it too. But when it leads to poor health and an empty wallet, that’s when folks have to wake up.
Unless the meal kit industry finds a way to deal with the plastic waste I think their future is limited. So many folks have canceled over the vast waste the industry produces, and they need to address that.
And that’s the rub: Many people aren’t good at breaking habits that are clearly not good for their physical or fiscal health. That’s not a judgment call; given the obesity and debt epidemics many are afflicted with, it’s just an observation. To be honest, as long as people keep as busy as they do (working long hours, making sure their kids are active in so many extracurricular activities, the general, constant push to be productive, etc.), lots of people will make changes according to where they want to put their priorities. And denying oneself an easy pleasure is too rarely at the top of those lists.
Re the waste associated with meal kits, that’s one of the reasons why I won’t personally try them. In fact, their environmental impact goes beyond the waste: delivery of goods to homes adds a whole lot of CO2 and other air pollutants to their carbon footprint. But for all the talk of how people want to “save the planet,” too few individuals at this point are making significant changes to their habits that wield a significant reduction to carbon/pollution footprints. And I can imagine meal kit makers responding to any significant call to reduce their waste as using as much recyclable (in theory, but in practice?) materials as possible. Maybe they do already, I’ve never looked into it. That would make people feel better about using the kits and thereby break down that barrier for many as it has for many other products and services.
I don’t mean to be such a pessimist, but as someone who has spent almost 20 years in the environmental/sustainability field, I’ve been able to observe humans’ habits and the high-level trends with respect to GHG emissions and refuse generation and management. Let’s just say that the portrait doesn’t exactly inspire optimism: Yes, there has been change for the better on some levels, but the overall trends are ever-higher GHG emissions, consumption of ressources, and levels of trash generated. The long and short of it is that the change that occurs is almost a rounding error compared to the sheer magnitude of “unenvironmental” practices built into modern, convenience-focused life.
To end on a much more positive note, I am fairly certain that young people sincerely desire to lead simpler lives that are more in tune with the carrying capacity of the planet. I’m eager to see what they do once their demographic weight is hefty enough to make a real imprint on politics and consumer and production practices.
“too few individuals at this point are making significant changes to their habits that wield a significant reduction to carbon/pollution footprints.”
You’re being a bit gentle in your comment, what you’re really saying is that we’re largely a nation of hypocrites when it comes to many of these issues, and I agree. I hope your note of optimism at the end rings true. I see that as well, but sometimes wonder if it’s just all talk.
Thanks for the great comment and making me think!
Dave,
We immigrated from Italy when I was a child in the early ’70’s and I recall my parents, both of whom worked FULL TIME, and cooked EVERYDAY! IF we “ate out”, it was usually to celebrate a family event like a communion or wedding. Growing up, my brother, sister and I, didn’t know what the inside of a restaurant looked like. My parents were raised this way, and that’s how they raised us. The food they made was delicious and far cheaper than eating out. And my parents brought a lunch to work EVERYDAY.
I believe the majority of people in this country are addicts and lazy. We bitch and complain when we are inconvenienced and have no idea what it means to sacrifice. By addicts, I mean addicted to our phones, fast-food, lattes, and social media just to name a few.
I observe this behavior first hand at work and all around me. My co-workers eat out everyday! Most contribute very little to their 457, some contribute NOTHING, but eat out everyday and they’re not dining off the dollar menu either, $10 -$13 luches on average. MOST drive newer cars, love to go drinking on the weekends and saving money, or losing weight IS NOT A PRIORITY. Anything that takes effort is just to hard and avoided!
I’ve had conversations with some regarding losing weight. I am in great shape and they approached me. After giving them some advice, they still continue with their destructive behaviors. I DON’T CARE, but what really irks me is that we get paid for medical for free, now and when we retire. Maybe if they had some skin in the game, they’d have an incentive to stay healthy. Instead, after being told how the foods they are eating and the beer they are consuming is leading them down the road to Diabetes and all the disease that come with it, they just don’t care! And one individual has diabetes, and still has a muffin with coffee every morning and fast food for lunch! And a few others are on statins!
I wish physicals and blood work were required in order for us to keep our free medical! It’s one thing, if you had no idea your choices were making you ill and fat, but these folks know and it’s easier to continue to eat like crap knowing the free medical will “cure” them of whatever they get diagnosed with!
The billions that we spend on sick care every single year could be curbed! Premiums are through the roof and we are being held captive to our job because of the premiums. Our diets alone and the food we consume could SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE the chronic diseases that result from the Standard American Diet!
If we could just eat an ancestrally appropriate diet with intermittent fasting and some extended fasting, we’d see REMARKABLE IMPROVEMENTS TO OUR HEALTH! Feast and Fast.
With the exception of you Dave, hardly any other financial blogs are having this conversation! Kudos to you!
Diabetes leads to so many other chronic and debilitating diseases like heart disease, hyper tension, cancer, obesity, and stroke. Doctors ARE NOT getting to the ROOT CAUSE of what’s causing the diseases, instead they are just treating the SYMPTOMS!
Let’s get to the root cause! It’s our highly processed food, void of any nutrition, high in carbs, starches and sugars foods which cause us to eat and snack more, thereby keeping our insulin levels high, which in turn, puts us on the road to diabetes and the host of other diseases that accompany diabetes.
But could you imagine telling Americans they’d have to give up their Starbucks or whatever else they’re addicted to!
And therein lies the problem. We do not like to do what is difficult and usually take the path of least resistance. Although technology is great, in some cases it’s made us lazier and fatter. Uber eats! or Apple Pay at the McD’s drive thru! It’s crazy and ruining the health of future generations as well!
I struggled with weight after I moved out of my parents house, because I strayed into the fast food world and became addicted, but I taught myself and I learned how to truly eat in a healthy way. And it’s vastly different than what we’re taught! The food pyramid is complete BS! and so was Ancel Keys just to name a few.
Americans need to wake up and educate themselves on nutrition because without health, you have nothing and life becomes increasingly more stressful!
It’s an uphill battle because we are up against corporations who wants us to be addicted to the crap they sell us, pharmaceutical companies that profit in the billions with the drugs they sell, and the doctors who help push the pills.
Keep up the good work and I wish more bloggers would highlight that if we truly wanted to change the landscape of what our current healthcare system looks like, we need to address OUR DIETS!!!!
Until we do that, we will continue to have nothing but managed sick care!
Wow, thanks for telling your amazing story and for the thoughtful comment. I’ve actually lost a few readers over this issue, especially my healthcare post. I simply stated government facts about obesity and well established facts about chronic disease and the costs to the healthcare system. Seems that simply stating facts can make people so angry that they don’t want to hear it. That’s okay, people who don’t want to see the truth and possibly contemplate it aren’t my audience anyway.
Thanks so much for the complements and I will continue to blog about health and it’s relation to behaviors and finances!
I don’t thinking homecooking will be the norm in this country. For families with kids, eating at home is not as important as putting their kids in extracurricular activities. Kids who grow up eating on the go will continue this cycle when they reach adulthood.
And frankly I think that for most people, homecooking is not as good as restaurant food. Im not referring to all the addictives etc.. I think many people are not great cooks or even have a basic idea about homecooking. Like the guy with the Italian grandparents, I grew up with homecooking as the norm. My mom could make dozens of delicious and healthy foods, which meant there was no food waste either. That is a lost art in this country.
Please note that I’m not advocating for the good old days when most women stayed home and had more time to cook. However in our dual income, fast-paced world, people lack both time and skill to cook well.
The pessimist side of me agrees with you. But the realist side of me thinks the obesity epidemic has to reach a breaking point. We have 40% obesity, and 72% of Americans are overweight. Type 2 diabetes is an epidemic, if the trends keep going as they are – and they show no signs of stopping – a breaking point has to come.
We need to start thinking of food differently. This will be no easy task since we are all addicted to the foods that we love, but it can be done.
Food is simply there to supply us with the nutrients that we need. However, food is no longer viewed that way, and has become part of what “entertains” us. At almost every event we attend there is food at the center of it. At almost every social gathering there is food as part of the entertainment.
As I said, I was raised on delicious homemade Italian food, but I no longer eat that way. I can’t. My meals are very simple and they are nutrient dense which allows me to stay satiated, eat once per day, and feel amazing! Some days I can easily skip a meal because of fasting. My health has improved dramatically since I let go of the pasta and bread. I am no longer obsessed with food, or planning my meals and it takes ALOT LESS EFFORT to eat this way! And most importantly, the way I eat is SUSTAINABLE.
It’s not a fad “diet”. I eat the way our ancestors did. I eat real whole food that does not keep my insulin levels chronically elevated.
I never imagined I could forego pasta, bread and pizza. But I have and I can. It’s alot easier than you think once you break your addiction and learn how to eat foods that satiate you and adapt your body to burn it’s own stored enery-fat!
I have stumbled upon this way of eating about 2 years ago and have devoured as much information as I could since then, and it’s been eye opening!
And very upsetting at the same time because much of what we have been told is a LIE from people in government and corporations with a hidden agenda. Falsehoods driven by profits and religious like personal beliefs.
Diabetes is at epidemic levels in our country and throughout the world, and what’s upsetting is that diabetes IS REVERSIBLE! All the associated diseases that come with it are PREVENTABLE!
However, there is NO MONEY to be made in telling people the truth! So we continue to medicate and push pills. And we continue to get sicker and bigger. How is this working out?
Healthcare is an issue that affects EVERYBODY. If healthcare wasn’t so expensive, I would glady purchase it like I could an auto or home policy and RETIRE today. Instead, I’m waiting five more years to qualify for paid medical. Otherwise, the premium would cost me $2,100.00 per month, like a mortgage! And that’s without any tests, treatments or stepping put in a doctor’s office.
What is disconcerting is that I honestly don’t see this problem getting resolved any time soon or in my lifetime. To get people off sugar and the highly processed carb addicting foods they love is a monumental task.
Our bodies are pretty resilient and can withstand abuse for decades before the signs of disease from all the years of chronic inflammation from the way we eat, begins to surface. We fool ourselves into believing we can eat this way and lead a sedentary life with no consequences. And if that’s your choice, then the rest of us should not have to pay for it!
We do not need to be gourmet chefs, or prepare complicated meals. But we do need to eat at home more often than not and eat real whole nutrient dense food that doesn’t come with a list of chemical ingredients. Period. Food is for nutrients NOT for entertainment. We need to break this mindset.
Dave, as you are aware you can’t please everybody. Sometimes the truth hurts or offends, but needs to be stated. We can’t continue on this disastourous path and kid ourselves into calling it healthcare! When all we have is managed sickcare.
Doctors receive very little education in nutrition and people put their trust in them. And until they began applying Hippocrates philosophy of let food be thy medicine, they’ll continue to just push pills for the symptoms rather than looking for the root cause.
End of rant.
Dude, I think you should start your own blog 🙂
I’m half Italian and growing up bread and pastas were mainstays in my family. I’ll admit, I love them. But like you I’ve drastically reduced them in my diet over the years and it’s made me way healthier and easier to control my weight. I have them rarely now and to be honest it’s much more of a treat when I do have them. I like it that way.