A Geographic Look At Unemployment From Coronavirus

Prior to the coronavirus pandemic, the U.S. was in it’s strongest job market in 50 years.  In January I wrote about the incredible bull market that dominated the last decade.  The spectacular rising curve of equities in the past 10 years was matched only by the plunging line of unemployment. 

Here’s what the unemployment chart looked like in January:

 

As of January we had 92 consecutive months of gains in payrolls in America, the longest continuous stretch since records began.  And the U.S. economy added 18.3 million jobs from late 2010 to January 2020.

Well, things have uhh …changed.  Here’s the unemployment chart now:

 

You kind of have to look close to see the spike, which is almost a vertical line.  Yep, 14.7%  Numbers vary slightly since they’re still coming in, but according to the Tax Foundation:

Approximately 15.1 percent of the U.S. civilian labor force has now applied for or is receiving unemployment compensation benefits (through May 2, the latest data). The previous high was 7.9 percent early in 1975 during a recession, with a Great Recession peak of 4.8 percent between February and April 2009. Entering March 2020, unemployment claims as a percentage of the civilian labor force stood at 1.4 percent.

 

On The Map

Regular Accidental FIRE readers know I’m a map guy and seeing things on the map usually reveals trends and insights that pure data can’t show.  The best map I’ve found to show the unemployment data is this interactive version that aggregates by county from SimpleMaps. 

The data is accurate as of Friday May 8th when the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the most recent figures.

 

In just looking at the map it appears the West is getting hit harder but some of that is visual deception because their counties are larger and the cartographer used a rather thick white line to divide counties.  So smaller eastern counties don’t show as much color. 

If you look, however, at Appalachia through Pennsylvania you can see a very dark colored corridor which of course matches some of the poorest areas in the country. 

Another site that has an interactive unemployment map by county is at Spark Rental.  Their data is as of March 2020 so it’s a little older.

 

State Readiness

Unemployment benefits are state-run with federal oversight, so what is the financial ability to pay out unemployment benefits by state?  It’s a mixed bag.  According to the Tax Foundation:

Unfortunately, many states entered the crisis with woefully inadequate unemployment compensation trust funds. Trust funds in California, Massachusetts, New York, Ohio, and West Virginia are nearly or completely exhausted, with depletion imminent in Connecticut, Texas, Illinois, and Kentucky as well. According to our projections, a dozen states only have enough left in their funds to pay out a month’s worth of benefits based on those who have filed for or are receiving benefits to date; since payments lag claims, it may take an additional week or two for funds to be fully exhausted.

Here’s the visual breakdown of unemployment trust fund readiness by state:

 

Something most aren’t aware of is that several states reduced the length of time that a claimant could receive unemployment benefits after the 2008 recession.  These reductions were an attempt to replenish their unemployment insurance trust funds. 

Most states provide benefits for 26 weeks but some, especially in the Southeast, reduced down to as little as 12 weeks.

 

In Perspective

In the seven weeks leading up to May approximately 33.5 million people filed for unemployment in the United States.  To give context to that number, the US Department of Labor statistics states that in February 2020 (before the pandemic) there were a total of 164.2 million workers in the civilian labor force. 

I found two cool sites that use mapping to put the 33.5 million jobs number in context.  The State of Unemployment map let’s you visualize what 33.5 million jobs equates to by showing states whose combined number of jobs equals 33.5 million before the coronavirus pandemic started. 

On their site you can click the button on the right to see different groupings of states that add up to that number (approximately). 

The folks at Engaging Data have a similar map and also give you options to show most states, least states, and also to choose by area. 

Lastly this very cool interactive map from Urban.org allows you to visualize the estimated number of jobs lost by census tracts, along with the job type. 

As you explore the data it’s obvious that lower income service jobs are being hit the hardest.  When your local government has made it illegal for your very job to be conducted, that obviously creates problems.

 

Going Forward

The CARES Act did make some changes to unemployment insurance that will benefit those needing help.  For instance gig workers, self-employed individuals, and other categories of workers that normally would not qualify for unemployment insurance will now qualify for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) until the end of 2020. 

The legislation also increases the per-week benefit through July 31st and provides benefits for an additional 13 weeks beyond a state’s existing regulations, until the end of 2020. 

But like everything impacted from the coronoavirus pandemic, only time will tell if these changes will really make a difference, or if they will need to be extended. 

Your turn – Have you been laid off from the coronavirus pandemic?  Have you been able to collect unemployment benefits?