The Power Of Pessimism

Vice Admiral James Stockdale spent seven years of the Vietnam War being tortured in a Hanoi prison.  Author Jim Collins interviewed Stockdale for his book “Good To Great”, and Stockdale had some intriguing insight. 

Collins asked him who didn’t make it out, and this is what Stockdale said:

“The optimists. Yes. They were the ones who always said, ‘We’re going to be out by Christmas.’ Christmas would come and it would go. And there would be another Christmas. And they died of a broken heart.” Then he grabbed me by the shoulders and he said, “This is what I learned from those years in the prison camp, where all those constraints just were oppressive. You must never ever ever confuse, on the one hand, the need for absolute, unwavering faith that you can prevail despite those constraints with, on the other hand, the need for the discipline to begin by confronting the brutal facts, whatever they are. We’re not getting out of here by Christmas.”

Bold emphasis mine.  This line of thinking has become known as the Stockdale paradox.  In a nutshell it says you must hold out hope, but also be realistic, even if the latter often means thinking negative.

 

Pessimism

Regular readers know I’m fascinated by the behavioral traits that drive our financial decisions and our lives.  I’ve written about discipline and persistence, about resilience and delayed gratification. 

Let’s discuss pessimism.

Positive thinking has it’s place for sure.  The massively successful book series from Rhonda Byrne launched with “The Secret” suggests that just thinking about something enough can make it happen. 

While mental visualization techniques such as imagining yourself hitting a home run or crossing a marathon finish line have proven effective for athletes and performers, they fall short as a strategy for life’s more complex desires. 

Just thinking about becoming financially independent – or better yet defeating COVID-19 – isn’t going to make it happen.  Go ahead and try, I’ll wait. 

 

What Could Go Wrong?

After climbing big mountains all over the world I’ve found that pessimism and negative thinking – or more accurately focusing on what can go wrong – a great strategy to stay alive and mitigate risk. 

The mountains can be dangerous, it’s what we climbers call “objective hazards“.  Things you have little or no control over such as rockfall, lightening, or avalanches are very real and dangerous. 

One of my early posts on this blog was about a failed attempt at ice climbing a peak in the Adirondacks.  Because I’ve learned to use pessimism to my advantage I was observing possible rappeling options on the way up, just in case we had to make a quick escape if something went wrong. 

Something did go wrong, and my foresight proved extremely valuable.

Pessimism forces planning.  When applied in proper doses it can create “optimal anxiety“.  I’m not advocating you walk around being Debbie Downer.  You’ll be a buzzkill and lose friends if you constantly focus on the negatives in life.

But acknowledging what can go wrong allows you to prepare for it.

 

The Science

Studies show pessimism can help in many areas of life.  One study showed that students who anticipated higher test scores than they received were more upset after learning their score, while others who had tempered their expectations and underestimated their score felt better afterward. 

Or as the study says, “…people may proactively manage their expectations to avoid the costs of optimism.” 

Another study of self-employed workers showed those who were pessimistic made more than those who were optimistic.  My guess is those more pessimistic entrepreneurs have a bit of a “do or die” mentality going on.  And along with that comes the thoughts of what “die” means, i.e. failure.  Thinking about the consequences of failure likely propels them.

Harnessing negative thinking for good was labeled “defensive pessimism” in a study from the 1980’s, and subsequent studies showed it to be beneficial. 

One unique study found that defensive pessimism applied to longer term life expectations actually has positive health outcomes.

Findings suggest that older adults are more likely to underestimate their life satisfaction in the future and that such underestimation was associated with positive health outcomes.

 

Rebrand It

I get it that many may not like the terms “pessimistic” or “negative” thinking.  I prefer to call it realistic thinking.

When I’m climbing realistic thinking says “It’s kind of unlikely but entirely plausible there could be an avalanche today. I’m bringing my avalanche rescue tools”.  Overly optimistic thinking says “there’s no chance of an avalanche today, let’s go!”  The former helps keep me alive, the latter could get me killed.

I think you can see the money angle here.  Realistic thinking can help prepare you for the unforeseen expenses and tragedies of life.  That of course leads to saving money and having a nice emergency fund for when things go south. 

Realistic thinkers have probably fared better in this pandemic than eternal optimists.

Realistic thinking is considering how you’d weather a major medical diagnosis, one that your insurance company won’t cover in full.  It’s considering how you’ll handle long-term care for your elderly parents.  Those aren’t fun things to think about, they’re negative. 

But negative is part of life, and ignoring it or trying to paint it over with relentless cheery optimism isn’t going to make it go away.

 

Preppers & Stoics

Preppers are realistic thinkers, often with a bit of quirky and eccentric overkill.  People used to make fun of preppers and years ago there was even a reality TV show about them, exploiting them as freaks to gawk at (isn’t that most of reality TV…). 

Preppers can think with pessimism, plain and simple.  And the current pandemic has probably changed a lot of people’s minds about them.  As this Atlantic article says “Although preppers have long been the subject of ridicule, I imagine many of us will take on some of their habits, or at the very least make space in our closets and garages for nonperishables.”  

And then there’s the stoics, who have always taught that it’s good to think about death, or how things can be worse than they are now.  Those thoughts can give you just enough healthy anxiety to prepare for bad times, while also cultivating an attitude of gratitude. 

So consider approaching life with healthy and targeted doses of pessimism.  It won’t be as bad as you think.

Your turn – Are you a pessimistic thinker? Have you ever tried doing it purposely?