The End Of History Illusion, Is History Over?

Who are you?  If you’re like me you are a work in progress.  I’m nothing like the person I was in my younger years.  Back then I was a functional alcoholic, obese, and kind of a hot mess.  Sure, some parts of me have stayed consistent since those days like my work ethic and my core values, but overall I’m a very different person.

And here I am planning to early retire.  But what am I planning for?  More accurately who am I panning for?  In 20 years will I be different again?

 

It’s An Illusion

So many people fall into the trap of thinking they’re currently the person they’re always going to be.  They think they’ve ripened, and have finished developing.  This phenomenon is called the “end of history illusion”.  Wikipedia explains it:

The end of history illusion is a psychological illusion in which individuals of all ages believe that they have experienced significant personal growth and changes in tastes up to the present moment, but will not substantially grow or mature in the future.  Despite recognizing that their perceptions have evolved, individuals predict that their perceptions will remain roughly the same in the future.  The illusion is based on the fact that at any given developmental stage, an individual can observe a relatively low level of maturity in previous stages. The phenomenon affects teenagers, middle-aged individuals, and seniors. In general, people tend to see significant changes in hindsight, but fail to predict that these changes will continue. For example, a 20-year-old’s prediction of how great a change they will undergo in the next ten years will not be as extreme as a 30-year-old’s recollection of the changes they underwent between the ages of 20 and 30. The same phenomenon is true for people of any age. 

So in a nutshell we think we’re going to stop changing.  Dan Gilbert does a great job of adding context to this end of history phenomenon in this short clip from his Ted talk:

 

That video hit home for me and exposed some thinking traps that I’ve been guilty of.  Ten years ago I would have never imagined in a million years that I would have a thriving business selling graphic designs.  That’s a big change.

As a person who’s continually trying to be better in life, my advice to myself is “Dude, whatever you do, do not stop changing.  Keep growing up for crying out loud.” 

But do I really believe I’m going to do that?

 

Set In Our Ways

I like routines.  They help me reinforce good behavior such as exercise and automatically saving money.  And they’re one of the best ways to cultivate discipline.  But they have a downside. 

If you allow routines to get too entrenched they can make you “set in your ways”.  That term generally carries negative connotations.  As Collins dictionary defines it:

If you say that someone is set in their ways, you are being critical of the fact that they have fixed habits and ideas which they will not easily change, even though they may be old-fashioned. 

I’ll be the first to admit that as I get older I’m definitely becoming more set in my ways in various parts of life.  I’m fully aware of it and try to keep a check on it.  But it’s hard. 

I once heard a metaphor about this that says your early life is like a small rowboat.  It’s easy to control and you can turn it pretty quickly with just one or two strokes of the oar.  But as you go through life and build on experience and wisdom your boat continues to grow and grow.   

One day you find it’s morphed into a cruise ship. 

When life is a cruise ship any turn takes way longer and is far harder to execute.  Some turns could take a massive amount of time and energy.  But overall the cruise ship is far more capable than the rowboat, and can handle rougher oceans.  It’s infinitely more complex, and in the end it’s more adaptable from a broad perspective – given the requisite amount of time to change. 

The lesson – routines are great, just don’t let them get so entrenched that they prevent you from turning the cruise ship.

 

Why It Matters

If you read this blog there’s a decent chance you’d like to semi-retire early like I did, or fully retire early like I’m going to do.  So the question is, who’s the person you’re planning to be in early retirement? 

Because the end of history illusion says it likely won’t be the same person you are now.  Your current favorite band might have a weak hold on that title.

Regular readers know I’m an outdoor sports junkie and spend much of my free time cycling, climbing, hiking, paddling, and moving my body in nature.  But will I always be like that? 

Answering that question now I’d say “Absolutely, it’s a core part of who I am”.  But Dr. Gilberts video above should tell me that my answer isn’t guaranteed to be accurate.  There are so many things that I have a general or passing interest in, who knows what directions I’ll go.  

I’d love to try archery.  I absolutely love fishing and don’t do it enough.  And as a marginally talented guitarist and drummer I have secretly always wanted to record some songs, or a full album. 

A small but loud part of me would like to write the great American novel one day.

So according to the end of history illusion it’s quite likely that in my late 60’s I’ll be spending more time playing music, writing, fishing, and maybe shooting some arrows in the backyard. 

Or maybe I’ll just take up woodworking. 

One thing I’m certain of – I’m continually learning and trying to get better as a person, so who knows where that increased knowledge and wisdom will take me.  It’s likely going to open up entirely new trajectories and passions.  And I’m stoked for that.

 

Malleable

I’ve never been a planner.  To me if you’re planning life too far down the road you’re making plans for a person you don’t yet know for a world you can’t yet conceive or understand.

The end of history illusion shows a fallacy in our thinking about ourselves, but in the end it highlights something really great.  It shows how malleable we are, and how our personalities change. 

You may think you’re set in your ways, that you’ve poured the concrete foundation of your life.  It probably seems rock-solid and permanent.

But that concrete has not dried yet.  And that’s a good thing.