Think Of Your Decline In Net Worth As A Loan
The idea for this post popped in my head, like most do, on a long bike ride. The markets had just seen a few days of massive declines. To me it’s nothing worth noting. I’ve been there, and done that. But I realize many folks out there are new in their investing journey and they’re seeing some serious volatility for the first time. They may not have much buffer to play with, it can be nerve wracking. I was there in 2000 myself during the tech crash. So I thought I’d convey a slightly unconventional way to think about market declines. One that – to me at least – helps take out some of the sting and worry.
I’d like to introduce you to Mr. Mark E’tdecline.
It’s a French surname, don’t worry about how to pronounce it, it’s tricky. Mr. E’tdecline is mostly a recluse and a hermit. He spends most of his time alone and rarely goes out in public.
Actually he’s been seemingly under a bridge for the majority of the last 8 years!
But here’s the thing, every once in a while, Mr. E’tdecline comes out of his shell and appears in public. He even makes TV appearances and does interviews for major websites like Bloomberg and CNBC.
When he does come out in public everyone talks about him! He becomes an instant celebrity, often becoming the top story in the news. Many talk about him negatively.
We’re not sure why he has the sudden and drastic changes in behavior, but he just does.
And nobody, we mean nobody, is able to predict when he’ll come out of his shell, or when he’ll go back to being a hermit.
Here’s where the problems begin….. When he comes out of his shell, your net worth goes down.
It just does.
What happened to your money?
Well, you’re giving a loan to Mr. E’tdecline. If you have money invested in stocks you have no choice in the matter.
When Mr. E’tdecline rears his ugly head (he’s really ugly by the way….) then you give him a loan.
We don’t know how much the loan is for either. It varies every time.
Sometimes it’s like 30% of your net worth!
Once, starting in 1929, Mr. E’tdecline started dancing around in public and things got crazy. He stayed out for a few years, and if you had money in stocks you had to give him a loan of 89% of your stock investments between 1929 and 1932.
People were not happy, they were depressed actually. Those were dark times.
But here’s the good part. Even though you’re probably going to be upset about giving him a loan at the time and amount of his choosing, just hold strong and do nothing. Trust me.
The best thing to do is to not sell your loan!
You do have the option of selling your loan which will give you back some of your money, depending on how long he’s been out in public on one of his PR tours of course.
Believe me, when you see him take 10 or 20% of your net worth it’s easy for panic to set in! You’ll say to yourself “I can sell the loan now and at least get something back before this goes too far! Make the bleeding stop, this damn E’tdecline guy sucks!”
But wait, here’s the best news of all – Mr. E’tdecline is actually a super stand-up dude.
He always pays you back, and with interest!
The only problem is he doesn’t tell you when he’ll give you your money back. Or how much interest he’ll give you.
And once he starts giving your money back he won’t tell you how long it’ll take to give you back all of it.
But make no mistake, he has never failed to pay back every loan, and with really high levels of interest too!
His track record is amazing and goes back almost 200 years! So he keeps his promises, every time.
But he’s really not big into transparency. Everyone has flaws though right?
Awesome post mate, very well written. Those bike rides are good for the brain eh?
They are indeed – thanks!
Ah ah ah very nice analogy!
What would you do instead right now if you had single stocks who got a lot of upside during last bill (think FAANG)?
Just hold em and let it go!
What a creative concept. Love it. It is amazing what enters you mind as an idea when doing something else that you can turn into something brilliant.
Thanks Doc!
Interesting take Dave, and one that I agree with. It’s temporary, and it’s not the end of the world. When people let their emotions get the better of them, they lose money!
Thanks Brian!
“Hello, this is your local bar?”
“Hi, I was curious if you’d see someone. Last name ‘Rotch.” First name ‘Mike’.”
“Mike Rotch? Turns around… Hey everyone, has anyone seen Mike Rotch lately? Does anyone know what Mike Rotch looks like?”
Oh, market decline 🙂 Reminds me of that.
Definitely good advice in this one, Dave. Stick to the plan, don’t sell, expect the drops, and it’ll all workout. Thanks for the good reminder,
TPP
Ahhh yes, I used to use that one. And some others that are way more crude that I won’t mention here 😉
It’s almost like investing in student loans, where the borrower can’t declare bankruptcy. The stock market can decline and decline, but the index is never going to zero. I love your analogy. Mr. Mark E’tdecline always pays, sooner or later. This is a brilliant way to envision the rough times and I hope younger people can imagine it when the going gets tough.
The most brilliant blog commenter called my idea brilliant. Now I’ve made it! 🙂
That reminds me of something I learned from a very successful real estate investor. The last time I checked, he owned about 2800 residential units and a bunch of commercial space as well. He said something to the effect of, “Even if the market value of all my properties drops to zero, which is unlikely to happen, I won’t care one bit as long as they’re still rented at market rates.” It really helped me put market conditions into perspective and helped me learn that investing is a long game.
That’s a great way to look at things as well. I like that quote – thanks!
Ha okay this might be the best bear market story I’ve ever heard. Add some drawings and you’ve practically got a children’s book on your hands 😉
Now you’ve planted an idea in my head! But kids don’t have a net worth, so I might have to translate it to something else. Then again, so many adults act like kids with their money, so maybe I could just to it and sell a kids book to adults… 🙂
Yessssss
Great way of looking at it… but what a fucker!
Ha! I can’t say I’m a fan of the guy really
That analogy made be chuckle. It’s a good one and I’ll be sure to use it for co-workers who might be worried about the recent downturn.
Thanks Pete!
i met that dude once. i like investing talk more than most normal people and here’s what i think some average investors get wrong (or less right). your decisions don’t have to be binary like 100% all in or 0% all in. you can sell 10 or 20% after a big run up like when the market topped in october. it’s just rebalancing and might not make sense if you’re very young like a lot of FIRE readers. however, if you’re less young like us having a lump o’ cash to deploy or just hold can help you sleep better at night.
i agree with angela about illustrations of mark. i know somebody if you want to write a children’s book.
Great point Freddy, the “all or nothing” attitude is prevalent, and not a good one.
As for the book, if I decide to do it I know who I’ll call for sure 🙂
I have to share this post with my best friend. I’ve been trying to convince her for over a decade to invest, but I’ve really been hounding her lately. Her response is always, “My uncle lost $37,000 in one day! ONE DAY!” When I ask how much he gained back, she can’t tell me. She just reiterates how much he lost. All the calculators and equations I’ve shown her don’t help either, but maybe this post will provide a better explanation for her. Fingers crossed! Great analogy, though, that market dips are like loans. I always say it means I get to buy on sale, and I like deals! I hate seeing those huge dips on paper, but I buy more shares anyway.
Well I’ve lost way more than $37k in one day. In the 2008 crash it was a pretty large number, on multiple days. Your friend just has to look at history and get that long-term, historical perspective. It can be hard, because we live in the here and now.
Thanks for the kudos!
Absolutely fantastic analogy. I’m definitely going to use it to revise my thinking on downturns. “Oh Mr. Mark E’tdecline – you’re so silly”.
Thanks PurpleLife!
WalMart has a sale, everybody buys; Wall Street has a sale, everybody sells.
Indeed, makes no sense…
Wait Mark’s name could also be pronounced MARKET DECLINE!! Is this some sort of metaphor? haha, nice post. I like your approach if already invested but where I struggle is if you have money on the sidelines right now. At historical highs and the longest bull market in US history together with a weaker housing market, questionable P/E averages, volatile political leadership, and rising interest rates would you still put it in or sit on it in t-bills waiting for a few months?
Ah – you got it! 😉
I’m still plowing away and maxing out my 401k, no change there. That’s tax free and a no-brainer. But if I got a windfall of some sort of any substantial size, I’d likely split it 50/50. It’s not that I’m worried about the inevitable crash/decline, because I can’t time it so I won’t try. But I just strive to keep an 80% equity stake at this point in my life. So a big windfall going all into stocks would blow that number. My driving strategy is my equity/bond ratio, not an attempt to time things. If that makes sense.
This is great and I love the analogy. The only element that I would emphasise more is “The only problem is he doesn’t tell you when he’ll give you your money back. Or how much interest he’ll give you. And once he starts giving your money back he won’t tell you how long it’ll take to give you back all of it.”
Our boy Mark is lovely but if you need your money in a hurry then you shouldn’t be putting your money anywhere near him. You might want to see his friends Sav Ingsaccount or possibly Gov Ernmenbonds [I’m not very good at this am I?]
The other point that I would probably draw out is that while Mark has been a stand up guy so far, he would be the first to say that his past performance is not an indication of his future results.
Doesn’t mean I’m not his friend though!
Ha – Awesome! Those are some funky names but if we continue the analogy they are important people. And they have a friend name Mr. Reales Tate! He’s a cool dude but not very liquid… 😉
That French jerk better give me my money back, or he’s going to dormir avec le poisson!
Ha, love it!
Dicey here, jumping on via the MMM Forum. I think I’ll enjoy this ride, especially if there’s more like this.
Some weeks ago, I stopped by an Open House in my old neighborhood. I got to chatting with the 40-ish, single, female, friend-of-a-friend Realtor. When the conversation inevitably turned financial, she stated she had just pulled all of her 401k money out of the stock market, because, “That’s my retirement! I can’t afford to lose it!” I was unable to reason with her at all. That conversation still haunts me. I think I’ll track her down and share this. She may not open her mind enough to embrace Mr. Mark (Marc?) but at least I’ll know I tried. Thank you.
Please send her my post, and direct her to other great posts out there. You can help her!
And THANKS for the kudos and for stopping by!
I think that the concept of not selling in a bear market is not exactly the same as knowing when to cut your losses and when’s the best time to move to your exit strategy.
I’ve seen some friends of mine double down on losers (thinking bitcoin, gold, that share that’s undervalued and is bound to double in value anytime now – I’m sure of it)
You might say that in the long run, prices recover – but knowing when to get in and out of the market is a gift that you can’t ignore
(I’m not gifted per se but I have made some good moves over the years – into and out and in again of real estate for example)
Well, if you get it right (moving in and out that is) it can be a gift for sure. But I think the data prove that even the best and most educated in the field can’t reliably do it repeatably. That’s why buy-hold rises to the top.
I agree.
the big advantage that investors have now is that you can easily invest in low cost, reliable, liquid ETFs – which compared to a few years ago was just not possible.
My future plans are something akin to – live off you dividends – and I don’t like the idea of choosing which shares to sell down in the event of RE.
That’s a great way to look at it. If the market doesn’t recover, we have other bigger problems to worry about. Timing the market might work for a few individual, but I know I can’t do it. I’ll just stick with my asset allocation and let it ride. Easiest way to do it and it works.
Let’s hope those “bigger things” never happen!
Good way to look at it! I would only feel bad for ones that really need their money – i.e., coming up on retirement and this guy decided to pay a visit. But for those people it’s important to plan and have assets that he doesn’t care about – i.e. bonds.
I agree, but a good strategy is to change your allocation as you’re getting closer. That’s not timing the market, that’s protecting assets.
Ah yes, I remember meeting this person back in 2008 when I first started investing. A wise person told me he’d pay me back, and he sure did. Having a couple years of buying stocks at rock bottom prices was incredible.
Yes!
This is clever and timely. Great post!
Thanks Drew!
Great post! Sounds like I need to start going on bike rides. It’s doing wonders for you. 🙂
They are my special sauce!
Hahaha this is a fantastic analogy and one that I’ll have to remember as I haven’t personally met Mr. E’tdecline yet.
Well I hope you don’t ever have to meet him but know better… actually I heard he came out today :/
Mr. E’tdecline sapped most of my early investments, as I entered the workforce in 2005. But sure enough, he paid back the loan (and then some!) as time went on. He’s not such a bad guy after all.
Great analogy- love it.
Glad to hear he paid you back!
People are too focused on their profit and loss. Essentially all they care about is whether the money they have coming in is enough to support their lifestyle. But they need to take a balance sheet approach. Spend more attention examining assets and liabilities. That is the only way to truly be financially self sufficient.